Photo: Motorsport.com
Honestly, after last season, trying to make any predictions for next year just seems like a complete waste of time. But, I miss NASCAR, so what’s the harm?
I recently discovered that it’s very fun to google predictions for a random past NASCAR season, and see how right, or usually wrong, the writers can be. Then there’s the occasional prediction that comes true, making you think that the writer can see the future. It’s just a fun way to pass the time. I then realized that I’m good at being wrong, just ask my high school teachers.
At the time of writing this, it’s been four weeks since Chase Elliott took home the crown in Phoenix. While I originally welcomed the offseason after such a tumultuous season, the fever has hit me again. I needed something to talk about. I decided to make ten predictions for 2020, here they are.
Kyle Larson wins early, but not at Bristol.
Kyle Larson is officially a member of Hendrick Motorsports. While many predicted this after Jimmie Johnson announced his retirement, nobody could’ve expected the journey it took for him to get to this point. After Larson said what he said, he is now a changed man. Larson has spent the last several months getting educated and doing good in society. He also went out and raced, and boy did he race. Larson may be a better driver today than he was in his breakout 2017 season. I think that the fit with Hendrick Motorsports is going to pay off handsomely. Larson will complete his comeback by winning the first Darlington race. While he’s obviously the favorite, I do not think that he will win the Bristol Dirt Race, which leads to my second prediction.
2. Christopher Bell wins three races.
Christopher Bell is perhaps the driver I’m most excited about in 2021. Moving to Joe Gibbs Racing is big on its own; but now that he is getting paired up with Adam Stevens, a man who has won two championships with Kyle Busch, that anticipation only amplifies. Bell has shown that he can win, scoring 15 wins in two full time Xfinity seasons. With Bristol moving its spring race to dirt, I think the three-time Chili Bowl winner will capitalize and score his first win, much like he won his first truck race at Eldora. Once he gets the first one, I think the floodgates will slowly open up, and he will score two more wins and advance at least one round in the playoffs.
3. Daniel Hemric excels in his big opportunity.
Do you remember Elliott Sadler’s 2012 season? If not, he came off a winless Xfinity return with four wins and has a career renaissance. I think that Daniel Hemric will have a similar season in the Joe Gibbs 18 car. While he has never won in the top three series, he has always gotten the most out of his car and has taken care of his equipment. I think with him knowing this is his shot, and the fact that he’s in his best car of his career, Hemric is going to victory lane this year, multiple times. That said, I do not pick him to win the championship. As for my pick for that championship…
4. Harrison Burton wins the Xfinity championship, moves up to Cup.
Harrison Burton closed out the Xfinity season about as well as anyone not named Noah Gragson. With two wins in the last three races, momentum is at a high for the second generation driver. With Chase Briscoe gone, there are a lot of wins from last year that are up for grabs. Austin Cindric is going to be hard to top, but I believe that Burton will be motivated to earn a ride, and he will take the crown away. Yes, Harrison Burton will win the Xfinity championship, and will join a surging young Cup team for 2022.
5. 23XI shows promise, expands to two cars in 2022.
No, 23XI will not win a race in 2021. That’s a tall task for a first year team to win. What do I mean by showing promise? I just mean that they will start out a little slow, but improve throughout the season and compete for top 10s and top fives by the end of the year. Bubba Wallace has shown that he can improve a team and get some great runs out of subpar equipment. Just look at his 2019 Brickyard 400 performance. With a Joe Gibbs alliance, and a team that looks to compete out of the gate, Wallace is going to get a lot out of this season. Additionally, 23XI tweeted a video of some plans for their shops, perhaps teasing future expansion. Assuming that the team is satisfied with their performance at the end of the year, I would not be surprised if Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan tab Harrison Burton for a second car for 2022.
6. Most improved driver…
JTG Daugherty Racing is by no means a top team in NASCAR, but they’re certainly not a 30th place team. Believe it or not, that’s where Ryan Preece was at heading into the playoffs last year. Crashes and mechanical woes destroyed his season. At one point in the summer, Preece finished last in three straight races, then ended that streak at Kansas where he suffered a terrifying crash that left him 34th. So why is Preece going to be most improved? Well, for one it’s hard to have worse luck or run as poorly as he did last year. But also, if you look at his playoffs, he was actually pretty solid. No, he wasn’t grabbing top fives or fighting for wins, but his 18.9 average finish in the last 10 races sandwiches him between the 17.5 delivered by Tyler Reddick, and the 19.2 from playoff contender Cole Custer. If he maintains a pace like that, he could be contending for a top 20 points position. This may be the last shot for Preece, he better capitalize while he can.
7. Austin Hill and John Hunter Nemechek dominate the Truck Series.
Austin Hill has been one of the best truck drivers the past two seasons. With six wins since joining Hattori after 2018, he’s done everything short of making it to the Championship. John Hunter Nemechek is taking a gamble moving down to a top truck team. After winning 6 races of his own for his dad, Joe Nemechek’s team, he has shown that he can win races. Both of these drivers have a lot to prove, and the talent to do it. Don’t be surprised if both of these drivers put up career seasons, perhaps four or five wins apiece. These two will be trying to one up each other all the way to Phoenix, leaving Thorsport and GMS in their dust, with Hill ultimately coming out on top.
8. Nobody Dominates in Cup.
The past four seasons, the Cup Series has seen two seven-win seasons, three eight-win campaigns and a nine-win year from a combined four drivers. That’s a pretty tough trend to keep up. 2021 is going to bring a change. Much like 2016, nobody is going to win over five races for the year. The reason for this is all the changes to the schedule. With five new tracks, along with the Daytona Road Course rumored to replace Auto Club, there is a lot of uncertainty that this year can provide. Not only will this make it difficult for anyone to reel off seven or more wins, but this presents opportunities for multiple winners. With one season left in the gen-six era, this could bring some positive momentum headed toward the next-gen car.
9. Three Stewart-Haas cars make the playoffs.
Kevin Harvick is making the playoffs, that’s a given. The rest of the team is full of mystery. Aric Almirola is coming off his most consistent season in his career. Cole Custer won Kentucky and the rookie of the year. Then, there’s Chase Briscoe, taking over Clint Bowyer’s old ride, fresh off a nine-win Xfinity series effort. Two of these three, I believe, will be in the 2021 playoffs. In my last prediction, I said that the new schedule can create an opportunity for many winners. So, by that logic, the two drivers who can go out and win are Chase Briscoe and Cole Custer. Having won at every level they’ve been at, I think they both continue their trend and win their way into the playoffs. Therefore, Aric Almirola will not make the playoffs. As consistent as he is, Almirola has not shown the ability to contend for wins like Custer and Briscoe have. Additionally, Almirola had a down year in 2019 after his breakout in 2018, so the trend might continue. There are only so many playoff spots available on points.
10. Championship Picks
I already spoiled two of my champions, but here are my 2021 predictions for each series.
Trucks:
Most wins: John Hunter Nemechek (5)
Final Four: John Hunter Nemechek, Austin Hill, Zane Smith, Brett Moffitt
Winner: Austin Hill
Xfinity:
Most wins: Austin Cindric (7)
Austin Cindric, Daniel Hemric, Harrison Burton, Noah Gragson
Winner: Harrison Burton
Cup:
Most wins: Kyle Busch (5)
Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin
Winner: Kyle Busch
That’s right; Kyle Busch will win the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship. 2020 was a down year, but you can only keep KFB down for so long.
That’s all for my predictions, feel free to tweet me @HBLoomis on Twitter with your own. Let's talk racing!
This story was published to Medium.com on Dec. 8 2020
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