Photo: CBSSports.com
Welcome back ladies and gentlemen! It’s hard to believe this is already my third year making predictions for the upcoming NASCAR season. Through two years I’ve swung and missed more than the Cardinals in the Wild Card series. Maybe the third time's the charm.
It’s too bad that the Cup series is as tough as ever to predict.
Last year was the most competitive season I’ve ever seen, and one that likely won’t be eclipsed anytime soon. With at least 25 cars capable of earning a playoff berth in the 16-car field, it’s anybody’s guess who will actually deliver. That’s not to mention a revolving door of drivers and teams in the Xfinity and truck series. For better or worse, I’m gonna take some shots in the dark. Start your engines, here are my 10 predictions for the 2023 season.
Photo: SpeedwayDigest.com
1. Erik Jones makes the Playoffs
Erik Jones is one of the most underrated drivers in the Cup series. He may be a top-five talent in the garage, which he showed to the world by holding off Denny Hamlin at Darlington. Getting the No. 43 to victory lane was awesome to see, and I think he’s going to do it again. Petty GMS added a promising rookie in Noah Gragson and the best driver in NASCAR history in Jimmie Johnson as a co-owner. The team is going to continue to improve, giving Jones more opportunities to show out. He proved his worth at tracks like Auto Club, Darlington and the superspeedways. He has a knack for closing out races, which is easier said than done. Jones is getting back to the Playoffs, where he will be a popular sleeper pick. Just imagine what he could do if he was still at Joe Gibbs Racing.
Photo: Stacy Revere/Getty Images
2. Ty Gibbs wins two races
For those that don’t know, I typically don’t predict rookies to win races. I think it’s unfair to set high expectations on them, as the learning curve is steep regardless of how they fared in the lower series. With Ty Gibbs, you have to make an exception. To me, there’s two reasons why Gibbs is going to score a couple wins this year. The first is that he’s, simply put, a generational talent. He’s a dynamite driver on a dynamite team, the best prospect since Chase Elliott. That team has shown that very little can beat them at their best. Secondly is the fact he has to succeed. There is no other option for him or for Joe Gibbs than for Ty to win right out of the gate. That is the only way to get away with the loss of Kyle Busch, the best thing to ever happen to the team. The team has put all of their eggs in this basket. If Ty can keep his head on straight, it should work out.
Photo: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images
3. Both Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. retire after 2023
Here’s a fun fact- since I’ve started watching NASCAR in 2007, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. are the only two drivers that have been in every Cup race in that time. It always makes me sad to see drivers from my childhood move on, but the time is coming for these two. Harvick’s contract expires after this year and there are several rumors suggesting that this is the last ride. Truex nearly retired after last year, with his partner, Sherry Pollex’s, health reportedly being the biggest factor in the decision. If this is the end of the road for these two Hall of Famers, we will look back on them fondly. With Truex, we’ll remember the dominant Busch series prospect who had one of the greatest career turnarounds ever with Furniture Row. With Harvick, we’ll remember him as a top-10 driver ever, a consistent, no nonsense driver who wasn’t afraid to take a necessary stand. If anybody had to replace Dale Earnhardt, Harvick fit the bill better than just about anybody.
Photo: RacingAmerica.com
4. Crown Jewel Winners
Like last year, I am going to try and guess the winners of the four crown jewels. I only got one right last year (thanks Denny Hamlin). Maybe this year will go better.
Daytona 500- William Byron
William Byron has shown to be a very solid superspeedway driver if he can stay out of trouble, with wins at Daytona and new Atlanta. Chevys dominated the superspeedways last year outside of the Daytona 500, which makes me think a bowtie is getting the Harley J. Earl trophy for the first time since 2018.
Coca-Cola 600- Chase Elliott
Charlotte is easily Chase Elliott’s best intermediate track. In his last five starts, he’s led at least 22 laps in every race and his only non top-five was last year, when he led 88 laps but got collected in a wreck. Fans remember Alan Gustafson having Elliott pit in 2020 when he had the race in the bag. They’re getting redemption this year.
Southern 500- Kyle Busch
In an extremely painful year for Kyle Busch fans, his blown engine late in the Southern 500 may have hurt the most. What better way to get redemption than by going back and taking the race the very next year? He won his first try at Darlington with JGR, now he’s going to do the same at RCR.
Bristol Night Race- Christopher Bell
Christopher Bell is due for a huge year. The next Cup series superstar had an incredible playoff run last year, including being a blown tire away from a Bristol win. He’s arguably the new face of Joe Gibbs Racing, a team that is known for showing out at the biggest races. He will get his first of many majors this year.
Photo: James Gilbert/Getty Images
5. Riley Herbst breaks through
Riley Herbst had a quietly solid season in 2022. Since he was rushed to Xfinity in 2020, it’s safe to say that he hasn’t set the world on fire in three seasons. Last season was by far his best, as his eight top-fives, 20 top-10s and a 13.0 average-finish shattered his previous best marks. Herbst is now one of the most experienced drivers in Xfinity series racing, which is great experience for this season in particular. Noah Gragson, Ty Gibbs and Aj Allmendinger are all going Cup racing this year. That’s 20 wins from 2022 up for grabs. It’s time for Herbst, he’s getting to victory lane.
Photo: John David Mercer/USA Today Sports
6. Both Austin Hill and Sheldon Creed win multiple times
In a way, this is a recycled prediction from last year. While last year was full of bad luck, I’m still high on Creed. He went winless in his first truck season as well, only to turn around and win the championship as a sophomore. While I don’t see him winning the title this year, he’s definitely going to win and be a threat from the start. Speaking of being a threat from the start, that’s exactly what Austin Hill was last year. While expectations weren’t as high for the former Hattori Racing star, he scored wins at Daytona and Atlanta, showing he was far and away the best superspeedway driver in the series. His 11.0 average-finish is very solid for a rookie season and earned him a Cup start. RCR has always had a strong Xfinity series product and these two guys are the newest beneficiaries of that. If all goes well, a Cup ride could be in the cards for one or both of them.
Photo: FOXNews.com
7. The Playoffs see at least 4 new faces
Remember in my introduction how I said there’s at least 25 cars that have the ability to win any given week? Yeah, that’s not a joke, this field is stacked. Going through the chart of teams (thanks Jayski.com for the help) I see four drivers that I can say, without question, that they’ll be in the Playoffs this year- Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano. You may have your own list, that’s all I see. Even championship contenders like Ross Chastain and Christopher Bell aren’t locks. We saw 19 winners last year and could easily see the same again in 2023. There’s newcomers like Noah Gragson and Ty Gibbs, veterans like Martin Truex Jr. and Brad Keselowski, winners from last year like Erik Jones, Bubba Wallace and Chris Buescher who all want a spot at the table. I’ll set the magic number at four new spots, meaning 1/4 of the field will be changed from 2022.
Photo: Ford Performance
8. Zane Smith dominates the Truck series again
It felt great finally seeing Zane Smith get the Truck series crown last year. After winning three of the first eight races, there was some fear that he peaked too early and would flame out. However, he was able to hold on in a thrilling championship fight to score the title. Smith and Front Row Motorsports pairing has been a great one already. He’s one of the few top dogs from last year after guys like Chandler Smith and John Hunter Nemechek left to go Xfinity racing. There’s no reason to think that he can’t match what he did last year, including a possible second championship.
Photo: Racer.com
9. Kyle Busch wins more races than Tyler Reddick
The two big name changes in the Cup series are inevitably going to get compared to one another. On one hand, there’s Tyler Reddick, who’s been considered a blossoming superstar for about four years finally getting his shot with 23XI Racing. On the other is Kyle Busch, a top-10 driver ever trying to show that he’s still got a lot of wins left in him. Oh yeah, he also took Reddick’s ride. While all logic would suggest that Reddick is in the better spot, I just don’t see it that way. While both drivers will have good years, there’s not much that can compete with a Kyle Busch out to prove something. I think we’re going to see a fire out of him we haven’t seen in a very long time, with several wins to boot. While he’s going to win more than Reddick, I see it going something like 4-3 in Busch’s favor.
Photo: FOXNews.com
10. Championship picks
Like always, I’ll go through my win leaders, Championship 4 and Champions in each series. This is as tough as ever, but let’s have some fun.
Truck series:
Most wins: Zane Smith and Corey Heim (4)
Championship 4: Zane Smith, Corey Heim, Ty Majeski, Ben Rhodes
Champion: Zane Smith
Ford’s best prospect will go back-to-back, with some familiar faces in the title fight. I do like Corey Heim and think he’s going to do great things as well. If he proves me wrong, I’ll be neither surprised nor upset.
Xfinity Series:
Most wins: Cole Custer (8)
Championship 4: Cole Custer, Josh Berry, Austin Hill, Justin Allgaier
Champion: Cole Custer
I didn’t mention him in the predictions, but moving down to the Xfinity series is going to pay huge dividends for Cole Custer. He’s going to get his confidence back in a series and car he excelled in. He’s going to score a bunch of wins and get that championship that eluded him.
Cup Series:
Most wins: Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell (5)
Championship 4: Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch
Champion: Christopher Bell
This was perhaps the hardest pick I’ve ever had to make. I ultimately stand by what I wrote about Christopher Bell and Adam Stevens last year. That pairing is magic, and they’re going to show that they’re the top team at Toyota and arguably in the sport. For the first time since 2005, the No. 20 car will be champion.
I can’t stress enough how hard it is to get predictions right. This is going to be an excellent season and I can’t wait for Daytona. See you in February!
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