Photo: Logan Riely/Getty Images
We are officially at the halfway point of what has been a wild and unpredictable 2022 NASCAR season. Across the board, in the Cup, Xfinity and Truck series, no drivers have emerged as favorites for the championships.
If there’s one thing that we’ve learned this year, it’s that there’s still a lot of questions we don’t know the answers to. You probably have your own list, but here are the ones I’m most interested in.
Will Tyler Reddick win a race?
Well that’s one answer down. Truth be told- I wrote these questions out before Road America. This space was going to be used to say that Tyler Reddick needed a win to make the Playoffs, as he was too far back in points with too many drivers between him and the cutoff line. I was also going to draw comparisons to Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott and William Byron, all of whom broke through midway through their third seasons. Instead, I think congratulations are in order. He’s been pegged as a potential superstar since his second Xfinity title in 2019. It was a long, winding road for Reddick to get there, but there’s no question that there are plenty more wins coming. The whole NASCAR world is excited for him as they should be.
Can Kyle Larson find 2021 form?
Kyle Larson had four wins and a surplus of stage wins at this point a year ago. It’s safe to say that this year hasn’t gone quite as smoothly in 2022. Even despite coming back down to Earth, and losing Cliff Daniels after Sonoma, he still sits fourth in points and is riding a pair of top-fives since the week off. Larson showed last year that he can win anywhere and any week. That team and driver are too good to be kept out of victory lane too long.
Are we in for another surprise winner?
There are 13 winners so far and I think that just about anyone not currently in the playoffs could be considered a surprise. Most of what I would call the maybe-winners, guys like Austin Cindric, Ross Chastain, Chase Briscoe and Daniel Suarez have already broken through, leaving few others waiting for their chance. In my opinion, the four races that could see a surprising new winner are Atlanta, Indianapolis, Watkins Glen and Daytona. There’s plenty of drivers that come to mind at the superspeedways. Bubba Wallace won Talladega last year and was second at the Daytona 500. Erik Jones was 1500 feet from winning Talladega in April. There’s also Michael McDowell, a guy that just so happens to thrive at both superspeedways and road courses. What about the two RFK cars, who seem to be taking a step in performance? With how the season has gone, I won’t rule anything out.
Does Kevin Harvick continue his playoff streak?
You know how I said anyone winning that’s not currently in the playoffs would be a surprise? Kevin Harvick is the exception to that rule. Being one of the best drivers over the past decade, Harvick has been a fixture in the playoffs since his last miss in 2009. While last year was a down year, 2022 is looking like it could be the end of the streak. Despite sitting no. 11 in points, he finds himself as the first driver below the cutoff, 20 points behind a surging Christopher Bell. He has scored decent finishes as suggested by his 10 top-10s and 13.1 average finish. However, he has led 13 laps all year, doesn’t score big stage points and has hardly been a contender for the win outside of Richmond. While I’ve always considered Harvick a serious contender, something has seemed off on that team since missing the championship in 2020. There may not be much left for them.
How will Trackhouse and 23XI perform in their playoff debuts?
Both Trackhouse and 23XI Racing are playoff bound, that much we know. The second-year teams have a combined three representatives with wins and have a chance at locking in a fourth. While this season is already successful for both teams, only Ross Chastain can be seen as a legitimate championship threat. The Melon Man has shocked the world by winning twice, sitting third in points and leading the series with nine top-fives. While he and teammate Daniel Suarez have shown speed everywhere, a big question will be how the team minimizes issues. Chastain has had run-ins with the likes of Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin while Suarez was a victim to flat tire at Kansas that ruined his day. Those thigns happen but it will be a test to see how they manage in their first run at a Cup. Meanwhile, 23XI may have the most perplexing driver in these playoffs.
What is Kurt Busch?
I nearly made a case for Kurt Busch to be a title contender after running third at WWT Raceway. That may sound blasphemous to say about a driver running no. 15 in points who’s only in the playoffs thanks to his annual win on a 1.5 mile track. Sure 23XI has had issues that even Denny Hamlin has admitted to, but I like what Billy Scott and Kurt have done together. They’ve shown a willingness to take a gamble like when they got a second-place finish at Nashville. On top of that, the first round is particularly good to him. In that round is Kansas, where he won in May, as well as Bristol, a track he’s won at six times. However, the biggest reason I think he can make a run is that he’s proven me wrong many times, like when he took Furniture Row to the playoffs in 2013 after getting booted from Penske, when he had a resurgence at SHR and won a Daytona 500, when he won at home in Vegas in 2020 to make the third round, when he rejected retirement and decided to help build a young team. I’m done doubting Kurt Busch.
What will happen with Kyle Busch?
From one Busch brother to the next, this is the first time there’s real question surrounding Kyle Busch’s future. First things first, he’s coming back to the 18 car next year. I don’t care what any reports say, I think I have as much of a chance to race that car as Ty Gibbs next year. No way does Toyota let him walk. His sponsor situation is intersting. Ever since it was announced that Mars was leaving, I’ve assumed that some sort of health-based company would take the spot. I am honestly surprised that it’s July 8 and we don’t have any word yet. While I don’t think this changes 2022 plans, this may have an effect on the team’s performance. They’ve been close a few times, narrowly getting beat at Charlotte and WWT Raceway before a rough three-race stretch dropped them back to sixth in points. The best way to help sponsorship issues is by returning to form. If it doesn’t happen soon, the calls for Ben Beshore’s removal will get even louder.
Who will score a third win first?
I’m a sucker for a random fact, so I was filled with joy to learn that this is the longest NASCAR season has ever gone before someone scored a third win. Our five drivers with two wins, William Byron, Ross Chastain, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano and Chase Elliott, are guys that can win any given week but have also shown some flaws. If I had to pick one of these five to win next, I’d go Elliott since he’s run 1-2 since the week off. However, I wouldn’t rule out some of the one-win drivers like Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch, who seem to run up front on a regular basis. This season is so wide open that any pick is just an educated guess.
Does the Xfinity championship go through Jr. Motorsports?
Dale Jr.’s team has been the best all year in the Xfinity series, as Justin Allgaier, Josh Berry and Noah Gragson all enjoy multiple wins as Sam Mayer has taken massive strides. However, despite their collective success, most people would name Aj Allmendinger and Ty Gibbs as the two favorites. Here’s where we ask if there’s strength in numbers. JRM has proven that they don’t exactly need all their eggs in one basket to get it done, just look at William Byron and Tyler Reddick’s championships where teammates Allgaier and Elliott Sadler were some of their biggest competition. The team has had speed anywhere the series goes, with wins on flat tracks, intermediates, superspeedways and whatever you consider Darlington to be. The playoff schedule helps them too, as Phoenix is a particularly good track for both Allgaier and Gragson. If they get multiple cars there, I’ll have a hard time betting against them.
Can Kyle Busch Motorsports make a championship push?
Zane Smith has been the class of the Truck series, winning three times and holding a 58-point lead in the standings. Sitting in a tie for second are KBM teammates John Hunter Nemechek and Chandler Smith, head and shoulders above the rest of the field but still not where they should be. Both show flashes of brilliance while also having races that leave you begging for more out of them. I would have to believe that both can find another win and spot at Phoenix, but they’re far from being considered the favorites at this point. Rumors say that both Smith and Nemechek are looking to go Xfinity racing next year. What better way to show off to teams than by closing out the year on a high note?
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