We are officially a quarter of the way through the 2021 NASCAR season, and Fox is getting every penny out of their “Best Season Ever” campaign.
Parity, uncertainty, underdogs and great racing week-in and week-out have left most fans very happy with the way the 2021 season has kicked off. Eight winners in nine races is something NASCAR hasn’t seen seven drivers took the first nine races in 2017. On top of that, both the Xfinity and Truck series have had some great moments too. I mean, who saw Ty Gibbs winning his Xfinity debut on a road-course, or Ben Rhodes taking the first two races?
In the offseason, I made “10 Predictions for ‘21” where I tried to predict what would happen in the upcoming season. While it’s hard to predict anything this season, let’s check in on them and see just how well, or poorly, I’m doing.
Kyle Larson wins early, but not at Bristol.
Score: 10/10
Starting off strong, aren’t we? I’ll be honest: my mom and I tried to predict each race back in December, and I actually predicted Larson’s win to come at Darlington. Little did I know that Larson would come out and be arguably the best driver on the 550 HP package to start the year. While he’s slowed down a little bit since the Bristol Dirt Race, he’s a driver that can go out any week and lead 200 laps. I don’t see any way he doesn’t win again before too long.
Christopher Bell wins three races.
Score: 7/10
I’ll say that I didn’t expect Christopher Bell’s breakthrough to come at the Daytona Road Course. He was my pick to win Bristol, but was fittingly taken out in the wreck that ended Larson’s chances. Bell hasn’t exactly set the world on fire since that win; but has been consistently around the top-10, even nabbing a top-five at Richmond. I don’t know if three wins is likely for the sophomore; but he’s definitely taken the right steps toward being a top driver.
Daniel Hemric excels in his big opportunity.
Score: 5/10
Hemric hasn’t been bad to start the season, let me just say that. Six top-10s and second in points is a very good start to the season. But what does Hemric absolutely need to do to prove himself? Win, and win a lot. With all the talent he has, being able to take care of equipment and get everything out of his car, Hemric is still looking for his first national series win. He had his best chance at Las Vegas, but got schooled by Aj Allmendinger on the last restart. A JGR car is expected to grab a lot of trophies. Brandon Jones won three times last year. It’s time for Hemric to put up or shut up.
Harrison Burton wins the Xfinity championship, moves up to Cup.
Score: 4/10
This prediction was pretty loaded, I’ll admit it. The first half of this prediction doesn’t look great, as Austin Cindric has, once again, been the class of the Xfinity Series. Burton is, however, sitting in third, and a win could come any week for the 20 year old. The second half of this prediction looks pretty solid, as Burton is making his debut this week driving for the Gaunt Brothers. On top of that, 23XI has been making it known that they’re looking towards expansion. If they are to expand, the two names that have been popping up have been Burton and Matt DiBenedetto. With sponsorship from Dex Imaging and Hunt Brothers, Burton is a driver that Toyota won’t want to lose any time soon.
23XI shows promise, expands to two cars in 2022.
Score: 8/10
I just want to say I’m pretty proud of my ordering for these predictions. In my original prediction, I stated that 23XI would struggle out of the gate, but come on strong throughout the year. That seems like a pretty fair assessment so far. 23XI has had a lot of growing pains, what with inspection woes at Daytona, to having some bad luck in pits. Bubba Wallace is a talented driver, no doubt about it. Talladega could be a great place to see how they’ve grown given how well they ran at Daytona. As for expansion, Denny Hamlin hasn’t kept it a secret on Twitter that they’re looking at buying a shop with potentially three cars in their stable. I still stand by my original thought: if the rest of the season bears any fruit, then a second 23XI car is on the way next year.
Most improved driver… Ryan Preece
Score: 6/10
After we left Daytona, this prediction was a slam dunk. Now, William Byron clearly holds the top spot, but I’ll get into that in a few weeks. Preece and the no. 37, simply put, were horrible last season. Mechanical issues, wrecks and everything else were all too common. Three last place finishes in a row should be impossible for a full-time team. This year, they’re by no means competing for wins, but there’s some sense of improvement. For starters, Preece is nine spots higher in points than after nine races a year ago. His average finish also improved nearly four spots from last year. With no charter, this team will have to continue this growth to keep their jobs. JTG-Daugherty stated that they’d run only 24 races if they struggle again and can’t attract sponsors. So far, they appear safe.
Austin Hill and John Hunter Nemechek dominate the Truck Series.
Score: 6/10
John Hunter Nemechek has been the best driver in Trucks, and he’s on the best team. With two wins already, I don’t see them slowing anytime soon. As for Austin Hill, the last four races have been pretty solid, but he hasn’t been much of a threat for wins outside a second at Atlanta. With only one lap led all year, he doesn’t fit the mold of a title threat. This prediction would look a lot better if I pumped the brakes a little bit. I originally stated that both drivers would exceed five wins, with Hill taking the crown. Nemechek could get there, but I don’t see it from Hill just yet.
Nobody Dominates in Cup.
Score: 10/10
Well look at that. Honestly, my prediction was just that nobody would get over five wins this season. At this rate, nobody may even top three. Nobody could’ve predicted what’s happened this season. McDowell? Bell on a road-course? Byron? Larson? No Busch, Harvick, Keselowski or Hamlin? This year is off to a start the likes of which I have never seen. I have no clue what will happen next, but I am loving every minute of it.
Three Stewart-Haas cars make the playoffs.
Score: 2/10
This prediction is as much of a mess as the team’s performance. Kevin Harvick is a lock, nothing will change that. I believed that Almirola would miss the playoffs because he doesn’t win. That looks good, but my God. I did not expect his drop off coming. Even worse than that, I had Cole Custer and Chase Briscoe winning their way into the playoffs. Now look, I really like both of those drivers; but they have, so far, been nowhere near the front aside from Custer at the 500. Everything that can go wrong for SHR has gone wrong this year. The team has led 18 laps COMBINED, and Harvick led 17 of them in one race. Almirola’s top-10 at Richmond was the team’s first outside of the no. 4 car. At this rate, two cars in the playoffs will be a near miracle.
Now, my last prediction was my win leaders and Championship four for each series. I already spoiled two of the picks, but the one I didn’t reveal may be the worst one of all.
Most wins: Kyle Busch (5)
Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin
Winner: Kyle Busch
Score: 1/10
Boy does this look bad at the moment. Hamlin can walk his way to the playoffs even without a win. As for the other three, they’ve struggled. Chase Elliott always starts slow, and his teammates all winning only means good things for him. We already talked about Harvick, but Kyle Busch is quite disappointing. I expected him to come out firing after his awful 2020. So far, it’s not there. You can say that it’s because of the growing pains with his new crew chief, Ben Beshore, but there’s really been no change from last year with Adam Stevens. Are they just really handicapped by no practice or qualifying, or is this just who the no. 18 is now? It’s tough to say.
Now, my predictions are a mixed bag, but there’s plenty of time for those mentioned to either turn it on, or completely flame out. What do you think about the season so far? Let me know by either leaving a comment, or by tweeting me @HBLoomis. Let’s talk racing!
Cover photo courtesy of MyBookie.ag
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