The end of the West Coast Swing is typically the point where teams get a gauge on where they stack up to to the rest of the field.
This year, it’s seems hard to know anything yet.
We talked about how much parity the 2021 season had, but 2022 has blown that out of the water so far. There’s already been 26 drivers to record a top-10 through four races that have seen four winners. Joey Logano is the points leader despite having a 12.0 average-finish and just two top-10s. This season has been about as wide-open and unpredictable as we’ve ever seen at this point.
So far the new car has shown us that anything is possible. It makes no sense trying to guess anything that’s going to happen, but we can make educated guesses. The game is simple – buy or sell. I asked around for some early season storylines, and I’ll try and determine if they’re legit or just a flash in the pan.
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Stewart-Haas’ strong start
Buy
I was adamant in my belief that Stewart-Haas’ atrocious 2021 season was a one-season deal. So far that’s looking good. They’ve already tied their win total from last year (one) and have three drivers in the top-10 in points, including the newest Cup winner Chase Briscoe and the most consistent driver in Cup so far in Aric Almirola. Even in the Xfinity series, Riley Herbst is off to a pretty strong start. The only downside for SHR so far has been in Cole Custer. Despite scoring an Xfinity win, Custer hasn’t scored a top-10 and his average finish has improved only slightly after his disastrous 2021 campaign. With a solid Xfinity resume, Custer should see improvement in a similar package, right?
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Toyota’s early struggles
Sell
Toyota has been shut out of victory lane through the first four races. That’s not good, but what’s more concerning is the fact that they haven’t really come close outside of Las Vegas and Bubba Wallace’s second at Daytona. You could give a pass to 23XI, who is running a multi-car operation for the first time, but what about Joe Gibbs Racing? Kyle Busch has been fine, he’s second in points and should’ve won Las Vegas. Martin Truex Jr. hasn’t been great, but has been passable with three top-15s. Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin have been arguably the two biggest disappointments so far. Bell has been snakebitten with tire problems, spinning out the past three weeks. Hamlin was a nonfactor at Daytona for the first time since 2017, and has been hurt by drivetrain issues and speeding penalties. With all that being said, it’s still very early and JGR is the second-best team in Cup. They will absolutely rebound, and I still expect all four of them to make the Playoffs.
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Noah Gragson’s torrid pace
Buy
Noah Gragson has a 2.0 average-finish through four races. Am I buying that he’ll sustain this? Of course not, if he did then he’d be the best driver ever. But I think he’s going to continue to be the guy to beat in the Xfinity series. Gragson isn’t the same driver he was a year ago. His Martinsville win is the kind of moment that changes a driver. He’s still as passionate as anybody you’ll ever come across, but he’s shown incredible improvement and maturity. I picked him to win the championship and I’m sticking by that. He’s got Cup aspirations next year and has a chance to show off this week for Kaulig. Things are looking good for Gragson.
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Ross Chastain and Trackhouse’s emergence
Sell
Trackhouse was a pretty big mystery this year, having acquired what was left of Chip Ganassi Racing. They’re running a two-car operation for the first time and things have gone relatively well. Daniel Suarez could’ve pulled off the upset at Auto Club had he gone outside in turn 3, while Ross Chastain had the best car at Las Vegas before a second runner-up finish at Phoenix. So why am I selling them? In eight combined starts, they have four top-10s, which is good. They also have three finishes of 29th or worse, which is awful. While there’s more context to those bad days that shows three crashes causing the poor finishes, a team like Trackhouse can’t get away with those bad days yet. Winning will solve everything, but until then I am going to sell.
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Tyler Reddick’s speed
Buy
Tyler Reddick far and away is the best winless driver in the Cup series. He was whooping the field at Auto Club before a flat tire ruined his breakout performance. Since then a seventh at Vegas and a third at Phoenix have him sitting comfortably at ninth in the standings. What’s arguably most impressive about his strong runs is the fact that he faced numbness in his legs at Auto Club and Vegas, and still performed up to par. NASCAR fans should be excited about Reddick’s emergence as a top driver. The question isn’t where or when Reddick will win, but rather how many times.
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Team Penske’s great opening stretch
Buy
Team Penske’s biggest question mark coming into this season is the guy that won the Daytona 500. I think that’s grounds for a successful season. Any doubts people had about Austin Cindric replacing Brad Keselowski were answered early on, when Cindric ironically won the one race that’s always eluded Keselowski. However, there were concerns after Ryan Blaney was incensed by Cindric blocking him into the wall for the win. Unsurprisingly, this became a nothing burger, as Cindric has been decent and Blaney dominated last week. The quietest driver from the Penske stable this season has, surprisingly, been Joey Logano. After his block in the last lap of his duel race, a move seen as “aggressive” by some and “stupid” by others, Logano has stayed quiet and has found himself running in the top-10 pretty often. He’s only scored a single top-five and two top-10s, but thanks to the widespread parity this year, that’s been good enough for the top spot in the standings. Roger Penske has to be very happy with his teams. In both NASCAR and IndyCar, his biggest questions (Cindric and Scott McLaughlin) won the season opening races. That’s hard to beat.
It’s safe to say that we don’t have any idea what is going to happen the rest of the season, as we’ve seen new faces at the front every week. That said, I am loving the start to 2022. The racing has been great and it’s awesome to see new winners. What do you think is going to remain the same, and what’s going to change the rest of the way? Feel free to tweet me @HBLoomis. Let’s talk racing!
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