It’s hard to believe that we are already a third of the way into the 2021 season. With 10 drivers reaching victory lane in the year’s first 12 races, predicting anything to happen four months down the line is a total crapshoot. That being said, let’s have some fun and make some educated guesses. Let’s take a look at the 16 drivers currently in playoff spots, and do some hypothetical thinking. Let’s look at the playoff grid as they run after Darlington.
Denny Hamlin
Martin Truex Jr.
William Byron
Joey Logano
Ryan Blaney
Kyle Larson
Kevin Harvick
Chase Elliott
Brad Keselowski
Kyle Busch
Christopher Bell
Austin Dillon
Chris Buescher
Alex Bowman
Michael McDowell
Tyler Reddick*
*- Tyler Reddick and Matt DiBenedetto are actually tied for the final playoff spot, but Reddick would win the tiebreaker after finishing second at Homestead.
Talk about a surprising playoff grid, as four active drivers (shoutout Clint Bowyer) that made the Playoffs last year would not make it this year. This year’s Playoff schedule is almost identical to last year’s, only with some shuffling in the third round. So, after Darlington, Richmond and Bristol, let’s see who would bow out.
16. Michael McDowell
Listen, I love Michael McDowell and the success that he’s had this year. He’s the feel good story of 2021, maybe in all of sports. However, I severely doubt the sustainability of his team’s performance. His 15.6 is such an outlier from the rest of his career as well as the history of Front Row Motorsports. I don’t see him advancing far in the playoffs; but that doesn’t take away from his career year.
15. Chris Buescher
Buescher is another driver whose success has been nice to see. As a lifelong fan of all things no. 17, it made my heart happy to see how well he ran at Homestead in particular. Buescher is a top-20 machine, something any owner would love. While consistency can get you into the playoffs, it’s going to take more to advance. Can Buescher turn these top-20s into top-10s and top-fives? With just six career top-fives, sadly I don’t see it.
14. Tyler Reddick
After sitting 28 in points after Atlanta, Tyler Reddick has four top-10s in the last six races and has climbed 12 spots in the standings. Why don’t I see him keeping up the momentum? He started out hot last year before fading out. After appearing to be a lock for Rookie of the Year, Reddick’s performance fell off after Cole Custer’s win at Kentucky, scoring only three top-10s in the final 19 races. With only one top-five on the season, I question both his sustainability and his potential to break out and score a win. I think Reddick is close, and he ran fourth at Bristol last year. I just don’t see it yet.
13. Christopher Bell
This one was really tough, but I eventually landed on Christopher Bell. I am going against my preseason prediction too; but I think it’s the most likely scenario. I was stoked to see Bell score the win at the Daytona Road Course, and he’s continued to compete for top-10s. The real concern I have with Bell and the 20 team is that I doubt they can compete with the big guys just yet. If you remember, Erik Jones made the playoffs twice in Bell’s ride; and both times they struggled mightily and bowed out in the first round. I think Bell’s team is a little better than when Jones was in the car, and I certainly don’t think they’ll fare quite as poorly. I just need to see a little bit more before I consider them more of a contender.
Now we move to the second round. With Talladega and the Charlotte Roval in this round, this is easily the biggest wild card round of the playoffs. Will there be a surprise elimination? Let’s find out.
12. Alex Bowman
I have been a bit disappointed with the no. 48 team this year. Four top-10s on the year and inconsistency has been the theme for Bowman and Ives this season. I would have them as a first round elimination had Bowman not won Richmond in April. I expect a big rally from the team the rest of the regular season.
11. Austin Dillon
While Bowman’s performance has been underwhelming, I’ve been very impressed with Austin Dillon so far this season. He started off great at Daytona, and they’ve ridden the wave of consistency to 12 in points thus far. The Playoffs work in his favor, as Dillon put together a terrific opening round last year to cruise to the second round. While they’re running even better this year, the team’s lack of playoff points could hurt them in the long run.
10. Brad Keselowski
Brad Keselowski’s track record in the Playoffs is the epitome of boom or bust. He can either make a run like last year and nearly win the championship, or struggle and bow out in round two like he did in 2019. He’s been the worst of the three Penske cars this season. Keselowski is an excellent superspeedway, getting his sixth Talladega win last month. An impending free agent, this could be Keselowski’s last go at it in the famous no. 2.
9. Kyle Busch
When I was at the Kansas Truck series race, I tweeted that Kyle Busch was getting his swagger back. Since then, KFB has a win and a third at Darlington. It feels right to see the no. 18 back up front where it belongs; and with no qualifying, he will continue starting up there as long as he keeps running well. If he continues the strong runs, and adds a win or two, I will view his as a bigger threat. Until then, I will leave him ninth.
The only schedule change takes place in round three, as Texas moves one week ahead from it’s traditional spot and swaps with Kansas, because NASCAR needed to make at least one change. Let’s see who would miss out on a Championship bid at this point.
8. Chase Elliott
Chase Elliott hasn’t been bad by any means; but fans definitely expected a little bit more out of the defending champion. I’m not worried about him being the only Hendrick driver yet to win, as he’s been consistent enough that he’s still in good shape. What worries me is that he hasn’t really been much of a threat for the win outside the Daytona Road Course. In fact, he’s only led 29 laps in the races since, not exactly championship material. Elliott has historically been a slow starter. He usually starts to get going around the Watkins Glen weekend in August. I expect nothing less from the no. 9 team this year.
7. Kevin Harvick
Tony Stewart and Gene Haas better thank their lucky stars for Kevin Harvick. The 2014 champion is the only reason Stewart-Haas Racing isn’t a total trainwreck this year. Even then, he’s a step below his usual standards. Here’s how bad Harvick has been: no wins, no playoff points and only 39 laps led. Now here’s how good he’s been: his 9.3 average finish is the second-best in the Cup series. Harvick has been excellent in the Playoffs since the inception in 2014, making five Championship appearances in seven years. They call him the Closer for a reason, he’s going to have to come up big once more.
6. Ryan Blaney
Blaney is another guy that’s really turned it on after a poor start. His win at Atlanta was a much needed confidence boost for a driver that’s had a hard time closing out races. While a deep playoff run would be big, Blaney needs to score a few more wins to fully solidify himself as a title threat. The round of eight is good for Blaney, as he runs well at all three tracks. With a playoff spot wrapped up, 2021 is all about racking up trophies.
5. Kyle Larson
That’s right, Kyle Larson is just on the outside looking in. Make no mistake: Larson is exceeding expectations to start out the season, scoring a win and leading over 500 laps. What Larson struggles at, much like Blaney, is finishing races. He’s had plenty of races in his career, like Atlanta and Kansas, where he has the best car, but can’t get the win for some reason. Additionally, in four playoff appearances, he’s made the third round just once in 2019. All eyes will be on the California kid.
Now we get to the Championship. This would be the perfect time to complain about how Phoenix shouldn’t be the finale, but let’s get to the rankings.
4. William Byron
Talk about a breakout, William Byron has shut all of his doubters up with a stellar start to the season. His win at Homestead was huge, but 10 top-10s in a row is a mark nobody saw coming, and has him sitting third in points. Rudy Fugle was a phenomenal hire, as the duo is running as well as they did in the Truck series days. What I like about Byron going forward is that he’s thrived under pressure. We all remember his clutch win at Daytona last August to lock up a playoff spot. What many may forget is that Byron won the 2017 Xfinity series crown, and would’ve been the 2016 Truck champion if not for a blown engine while leading in the penultimate race. The season is already a success for Byron, anything else they can accomplish is house money.
3. Joey Logano
Joey Logano has been so solid for so long that it’s easy to overlook his 2021 campaign. On top of his win at the Bristol Dirt Race of all races, he was leading late at the Daytona 500, the Daytona 500 and Richmond, along with leading 143 laps at Phoenix. Logano has been fighting for the win more often than not this year. Logano may honestly be the best Playoff performer since Jimmie Johnson; and that doesn’t seem ready to change just yet.
2. Denny Hamlin
Alex Ovechkin won a Stanley Cup, Clayton Kershaw won a World Series, now it’s time for Denny Hamlin to win a NASCAR Cup Championship. This year, he’s been consistently dominant, leading 749 laps already. With a 7.3 average finish a third of the way through the year, Hamlin should be the front-runner without much doubt. Not so fast, as Hamlin still hasn’t won yet. Losing race like Bristol, Martinsville, Richmond and Kansas late have hurt his bid for extra playoff points. On top of that, we all know Hamlin’s history in Championship races. I’m getting tired of this narrative. It’s time for Hamlin to get it done.
1. Martin Truex Jr.
Let’s see here… he’s the only driver with multiple wins on the season, all of his wins are with the 750 HP package that will be run at Phoenix and he even won Phoenix back in March. No matter how you slice it, Truex should absolutely be your favorite for the championship. Joe Gibbs Racing has been the best team overall this season, and Truex is leading the charge. Another driver who excels in the Playoffs, the New Jersey Fury is looking good for his second Cup in 2021.
So that wraps it up. Who is yout final four at this point in the season? Feel free to leave a comment or tweet me @HBLoomis. Let’s talk racing!
Photo courtesy of https://www.sportsmediawatch.com
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