Photo: NBCSports.com
What are the odds that the Daytona 500 gets rained on, while the Daytona Road Course can go off without a hitch the very next week?
After a rainy opening weekend in Daytona, NASCAR heads back down for a drier weekend at the road course. After Auto Club Speedway was unable to hold their annual race due to California’s strict COVID-19 policies, NASCAR added a seventh road course to the schedule at a site that will have no issues selling tickets.
We have another triple-header weekend on our hands this week; so let’s take a look at each series and try to predict who will punch their ticket into the playoffs... six months from now.
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While the Cup race looks like it’ll be dry, the same cannot be said about the Friday night Truck race. The forecast calls for a very high chance of rain. Fortunately, Goodyear has rain tires ready; which, combined with being a night race, sounds like the potential for a very fun race to watch.
Like last year, this is a very short race; with the stages ending at laps 12 and 25, and the race lasting only 44 laps. Last year saw Brett Moffitt dominate the first stage, with Sheldon Creed coming and grabbing the second stage, going on to win the race.
With this being a road course, many teams have drivers in one-off starts. Bobby Reuse is in Jordan Anderson’s no. 3 truck, fresh off a runner-up last week. Riley Herbst is in the no. 17 for DGR, along with Kaz Grala driving the no. 02 for Randy Young. Christian Eckes is also making his first start of the season, taking over the no. 98 that Grant Enfinger finished seventh in at this race a year ago. The qualifying formula gave last week’s winner Ben Rhodes the pole, with Ryan Truex starting on the outside of him. Let's take a look at some of the drivers to beat Friday night.
Drivers to Watch:
Sheldon Creed is the only driver in the field to say he’s won on the Daytona Road Course. His win last year, the first of his career not shortened by rain, really kick-started his run that led to the Championship. After leading last week coming to the white flag, Creed looks to build off his momentum, as he rolls off from row three.
Raphael Lessard has always thrived on road courses. After coming home in 10th a Mosport for DGR in 2019, Lessard had his best run of the season with a third place at this track last year. After an underwhelming rookie year for Kyle Busch, Lessard looks to prove himself to GMS, and there’s no better track for him to get started. Look for Lessard to come charging from a 14th place starting spot. As for who replaced him...
John Hunter Nemechek had no growing pains in his return to the Truck series, leading 14 laps in a seventh place run; and has great track position as he will start on row two Friday night. Nemechek has a win at Mosport in 2016, in that infamous battle that led to Cole Custer tackling him as he tried to grab the checkered flag. However, Nemechek hasn’t had much success turning right outside of that race however, and a 35th and 36th in the two road courses in Cup last year are a definite red flag. It’s hit or miss for the no. 4 truck this week.
With this being only the second time the Truck series is racing on this course, and the limited road course experience many of the drivers have, it’s tough to predict a winner; but why not go with one of the only three drivers in the field who’s won on a road course.
Winner: Brett Moffitt. Moffitt has a chip on his shoulder after how he lost the Championship last year. Now with Niece Motorsports, he wants to waste no time getting back to victory lane. He dominated at Mosport in 2019, leading 44 of 64 laps. He starts in 21st, but with rain in the forecast, anything can happen. Look for the no. 45 truck to be no. 1 to the checkered flag on Friday.
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The Xfinity series is interesting because there’s more drivers that have road racing roots; but there are some clear-cut favorites. The entry list is largely similar to last week, with the only major changes being Miguel Paludo returning to NASCAR in Jr. Motorsports no. 8, along with Ty Gibbs making his Xfinity series debut, replacing Ty Dillon in the no.54 for his Grandpa’s team.
All the top-five finishers from last year, Austin Cindric, Brandon Jones, Noah Gragson, Aj Allmendinger and Andy Lally are racing again on Saturday. Lally is the only one of the five not returning to the same ride; but his no. 02 he drove last year is starting on the pole. Brett Moffit and Cindric will lead the field opposite of how they finished last week, with the Burton cousins behind them in row two. This is another short race, just 52 laps in total. Let’s look at some of the favorites and try to find a winner.
Drivers to Watch:
Let’s be honest: Austin Cindric is the clear favorite to win. In eight road course starts the past two seasons, his worst finish has been a sixth-place run at the Roval last year, with four wins in that span. Cindric is a master of going right, which bodes well for him since there are seven road course races this year. We talked about how you need to beat the best to become the best. Well, Cindric is the best on the road.
One driver that may have the experience to get past Cindric is veteran Justin Allgaier. Allgaier has two wins on the road, both coming back in 2018. Allgaier had good, but not great run here last year, coming home ninth. Time is running out for the Lil’ Gator to win a Championship. An early playoff spot would be huge for him.
The driver most equal to Cindric in road racing ability is Aj Allmendinger. Winner of the past two races at the Roval, Allmendinger’s road racing resumé is well-documented. After a great 2020, where he won two races in 11 starts, Allmendinger is here for a full-season in 2021. He was awesome in the four road races last year, with a win, a runner-up and two fourth place runs. He is going to have a shot at a big year, going toe-to-toe with the defending champion.
Obviously, many people are expecting the battle for the win to come down to Allmendinger and Cindric; but what’s the fun in picking the favorites. How about a driver who may get forgotten for how well he ran on road courses last year?
Winner: Noah Gragson. Do you remember the drive Gragson had at the Roval last year? If not, allow me to refresh your memory. After leading early in a must-win race, Gragson was spun out by Riley Herbst. In a race flooded by rain, Gragson slipped and slid his damaged car all the way through the field to get back to second. Although he didn’t win, his drive was still one of the most impressive of the whole year. That’s who Gragson is: fearless and not afraid to go for it. He ran top-six in each road course race last year. If he can keep it on track, he could get his third career win this week.
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I must admit: I didn’t watch the race here last year, as it happened to be the weekend I moved back to college. But after the crazy Clash last Tuesday, this race has a lot to live up to.
Two things are different this week than they were last year: the package and the length. NASCAR announced that all road courses and tracks below 1.33 miles would run the 750 HP package. Daytona ran the 550 HP package last year; but will now have more power and smaller spoilers. The race is a little longer this year as well; as the race runs for 70 laps this year, as opposed to 62 last year.
Some of the favorites are starting up front. Defending race-winner Chase Elliott earned the pole position, with Daytona 500 champion Michael McDowell to his outside. Denny Hamlin, who finished .2 seconds behind Elliott last year, starts in fourth. Let’s look at some more drivers to watch this week.
Drivers to Watch:
Here’s a bit of information you will hear countless times on Sunday: Chase Elliott has won the past four road course races. None of them have really been close, as Elliott has really dominated each of them. The 2020 champion has all kinds of momentum, with two wins and a runner-up in his last three races. Coming to a track only he has won at, his momentum doesn’t look like it’s going anywhere.
Look up the term feast-or-famine, and you may find a picture of Kyle Busch at the Daytona road course. You may remember him being the benefactor of the crazy finish between Elliott and Ryan Blaney at the Clash. You may not remember his disastrous race here last year. After locking up the tires on the second lap, he spun during the second stage. He missed the chicane, went behind the wall for a while, came back and wrecked for good with six laps left. Busch is off to a solid start in terms of speed, it’ll be interesting how he and new crew chief Ben BeShore fare.
He may be in just his second Cup start, but Chase Briscoe is a driver to note. Briscoe had the car to beat in the Xfinity race last year, before getting collected in a wreck as he lost the lead due to pit strategy. Briscoe won at the Indianapolis Road Course last year, but easily could’ve won Daytona and the Roval as well. Bad luck prevented him from showing out last week in the Daytona 500. Don’t be surprised if Briscoe turns some heads Sunday.
Elliott is the odds-on favorite to win again, but again, that’s not fun for me. There’s one driver I really have my eye on this weekend.
Winner: Martin Truex Jr. Truex’s road course resumé shouldn't go unnoticed. With three wins at Sonoma and a 2017 triumph at Watkins Glen, Truex was the man to beat on the road before Elliott took his throne. Truex should’ve run away with the Clash on Tuesday; but he wrecked from the lead after running over dirt. Few people hate losing more than Truex. I think he gets his mojo back on Sunday and takes the win.
What are you watching for this weekend? Who do you think is going to win this week? Leave a comment or find me on Twitter @HBLoomis. Let’s talk racing!
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