Photo: AutoWeek.com
It’s still very weird to see Homestead before November.
The long-time season-finale destination is the sight for the third race of the NASCAR season. While the Truck series is, sadly, taking their first week off, the Xfinity and Cup series are ready for the first 1.5 mile race of the season.
Personally, I’m still a little upset that this race isn’t the season finale anymore. Homestead was 36/36 on the schedule from 2002-19; and aside from a snoozefest in the 2019 Cup race, the track hardly disappointed.
Unlike last week at the Daytona Road Course, there is no shortage of drivers who have won at Homestead. The Xfinity series lineup has three former winners; while the Cup has 15 drivers who have won here in one of the three national series. This makes picking the winners even more difficult; and even more fun.
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The Xfinity has really been a tale of two races so far. After defending Champion Austin Cindric took the season opener, 18 year old Ty Gibbs provided the second biggest story in NASCAR this year. Things should get back to normal this week.
Homestead actually received a second Xfinity race last year in the wake of COVID. They hosted a weekend doubleheader June 13-14; with Harrison Burton and Chase Briscoe earning the two victories. While Briscoe was promoted to Cup, Burton is looking for a second win in the Sunshine State. Also looking for another Homestead win are Brett Moffit, winner of the 2018 Truck series race and championship, as well as Tyler Reddick, who won the Xfinity race and championship in both 2018 and 2019.
Ty Dillon returns to the no. 54 car that won last week. Josh Berry returns to the no. 8 car after a strong run at Daytona. IndyCar driver Santino Ferucci is making his NASCAR debut Saturday, as his no. 26 Toyota for Sam Hunt Racing rolls off 21st. Let’s take a look at some drivers to watch this weekend.
Drivers to Watch:
As mentioned earlier, Harrison Burton grabbed the first Homestead race earlier. Burton has run well in all three of his Homestead races, with a 6.3 average finish. Burton is off to an excellent start this season, with finishes of third and sixth at Daytona; and he rolls off from the third position Saturday. Also, here’s a nugget: Burton won the third race of the season last year, as well as the first Homestead race. Maybe history repeats itself. I’m sure Burton wouldn’t mind.
How about the start Our Motorsports and Brett Moffitt are off to? They followed up their impressive runner-up at the season-opener with a respectable 11th place run on the road course. Although Moffitt is not running for points in Xfinity, this is a great step forward for Chris Our in his second season, after Moffitt had an 18.3 average finish in 29 races last year. Moffitt has a win at Homestead, a walk-off to seal the 2018 truck Championship. Moffitt rolls off from row three, the same row he started on in that 2018 race. Maybe Moffitt gets Our his first win.
One driver that has really turned his career around in the past couple of years is Brandon Jones. After a disaster of a season for Richard Childress Racing in 2017, Jones has found stability at Joe Gibbs Racing. One track he’s excelled at has been Homestead. After three straight eighth place runs between 2018 and the first of two races last year, Jones ended up in second in the last race, just .07 seconds behind winner Chase Briscoe. Jones has shown speed in the first two races of the year. Win number five could be just around the corner.
Last week, I seemed to curse all three of my picks to win. Maybe the second time's the charm for the kid from Las Vegas.
Winner: Noah Gragson. I conveniently left out one tidbit of information from last years doubleheader: in both races, Noah Gragson had a massive lead before a caution flew with less than 10 laps left. Gragson ended up getting burnt on the ensuing restarts, relegating him to third and fifth place finishes respectively. Homestead is a track that fits drivers who are brave enough to run up against the wall, Gragson is as fearless as they get; and it shows. He was the class of the field, leading 81 and 83 laps in the two races. Add to it the fact that Gragson is racing for a Cup ride, and expect him to run all-out, grabbing his third career win and putting on a show in the process.
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Mini-rant warning: The 550 HP package is the worst thing possible for Cup racing at Homestead. One of the things that makes Homestead such a great track is the multiple lines in the corners; with drivers on the outside getting massive runs down the straightaway. When you slow down the cars, you completely take that away. Don’t even get me started on how they replaced this track as the championship with Phoenix. It’s a real shame what has happened to Homestead, a race track that was truly worthy of crowning a champion.
Defending race winner Denny Hamlin starts on the pole for the fifth straight time at Homestead (not sure how that’s possible). Last week’s winner Christopher Bell starts third. Let’s see who will be joining Bell and Michael McDowell in the playoffs.
Drivers to Watch:
One of the most beautiful moments in NASCAR occurs when a driver is able to ride the wall and make it work. Nobody did that better than Kyle Larson. The California native has about as much talent as anybody that’s come into the sport in the last 15 years. Coming from dirt track roots, Larson learned pretty quickly how to ride the wall and make it stick. Homestead used to be his bread and butter, as he dominated in both 2016 and 2017, only backing off to not interfere with the championship battle. As mentioned, with the lowered horsepower, wall riding isn’t nearly as effective. This really hurts Larson, who has shown promise in his return to NASCAR.
As mentioned in the Xfinity series preview, Tyler Reddick walked off the 2018 and 2019 Championships with wins at Homestead. Reddick capped off both of his full-time Xfinity seasons with wins at the 1.5 mile oval, including 2019 where he upended Cole Custer and Christopher Bell in one of the best Xfinity races I’ve ever seen. Oh, Xfinity isn’t enough for you? Well he ran fourth in the Cup race last year; and could’ve contested for third had he not taken his foot off the gas coming to the white flag. Reddick is coming off a disastrous first two races. What better way to reverse the trend than by grabbing his first career win at his best track?
One driver not off to a disastrous start is Denny Hamlin. After two top-five efforts in Daytona, Hamlin again finds himself leading the standings. He comes to a track he’s won at three times, including last year; and he starts on the pole for the fifth straight race here (I still can’t believe that stat.) There’s been questions about if Hamlin is a clutch driver; and Homestead is an interesting start. When Homestead was a winner-take-all, Hamlin was a top-ten driver. Now that it’s just another race, he’s the man to beat.
Hamlin was going to be my pick to win; but that seems like the easy choice. How about someone who’s made Homestead their personal playground in the lower series?
Winner: Cole Custer. Let me take you back to the 2017 Xfinity series season. After Daniel Hemric narrowly beat him out of the last championship spot, a 19 year old Cole Custer went into the final race at Homestead and made a joke out of the Xfinity series. Domination doesn’t do it justice, as Custer ripped the wall to lead 182 of 200 laps and won by over 15 seconds. Oh by the way, this was his first career win in Xfinity. His performance made the championship feel like an afterthought. Custer then followed that up with a pair of runners-up to Reddick, leading 95 and 15 laps in the respective races. Custer, the youngest winner in national touring series history, has won at every level he’s been at. His Kentucky win last year made him the first rookie to win a non-shortened race since Juan Pablo Montoya in 2007. Custer has had a consistent start to the season. Let’s have some fun and pick the wild card.
What are you watching for this weekend? Who do you think is going to win this week? Leave a comment or find me on Twitter @HBLoomis. Let’s talk racing!
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