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We are going to talk about the 2022 regular season for some time.
From five first-time winners, to the 16 winners we saw, to the incredible racing we saw every week, the regular season gave us plenty of moments and headlines over 26 races.
However, it’s time to put that in the rear-view mirror. It’s playoff time!
We had a good idea of who would be fighting for a championship last year, with guys like Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin landing in most people’s final four. This year, it’s wide open. Like we did last year, let’s show what the standings look like heading into the opening race at Darlington.
Chase Elliott - 2040 points
Joey Logano - 2025 points
Ross Chastain - 2020 points
Kyle Larson - 2019 points
William Byron - 2014 points
Denny Hamlin - 2013 points
Ryan Blaney - 2013 points
Tyler Reddick - 2012 points
Kevin Harvick - 2012 points
Christopher Bell - 2011 points
Kyle Busch - 2010 points
Chase Briscoe - 2009 points
Daniel Suarez - 2007 points
Austin Cindric - 2006 points
Alex Bowman - 2006 points
Austin Dillon - 2005 points
Like always, there are four rounds in the Playoffs. If you win in a round, you advance to the next one. If you’re in the bottom four after every third race, thanks for playing and better luck next year. Round one sees one chance: Richmond was moved to the regular season and Kansas is now in its place (stay tuned for recaps from the track). Here’s who I have bowing out after the Bristol night race.
Austin Dillon
Dillon drove a remarkable final few laps at Daytona to get to this spot. He’s actually had a decent season, as his four top-fives matches his career-high. The problem is that he lacks the firepower of other teams, leading just 18 laps all year including 16 in the past two races. He’s gone on a round before in 2020. Does lightning strike twice? I say no.
Austin Cindric
The 2022 Rookie of the Year has been very streaky this year. After shocking the world and winning the Daytona 500, Cindric followed it up with one top-10 over the next 14 races. Since then, he’s had six top-10s over the last 11 starts. He’s shown to be able to make runs in the Trucks and in Xfinity, but Cup is a different beast. It doesn’t change the fact that he’s the best rookie in this series since Chase Elliott and it’s not particularly close.
Chase Briscoe
It was awesome to see Briscoe break through at Phoenix. He nearly scored a couple more as well, before spinning out in thrilling battles at Bristol Dirt and the Coke 600. Despite those strong runs, his last top-10 came at the aforementioned Coke 600. Whether it’s been performance or bad luck like at WWT Raceway, the results haven’t been there for the 14 team. He could still have some firepower, having led the most laps of anyone I have getting eliminated here.
Alex Bowman
For one reason or another, the 48 team has fallen flat this year. Bowman outdueled Larson at Las Vegas and nearly stole a win at COTA. Since that race in March, have we said that Bowman was a threat to win at any point? He’s had one top-five since then, a fifth at Dover where he led his last laps up until this past week at Daytona. With his teammates all in the top-five in points and Greg Ives leaving at the end of the year, Bowman’s seat may start to get a little toasty if they don’t perform.
The second round sees a change as well: Texas is now the opener instead of Las Vegas. With Talladega and the Roval here, we’re sure to get some wild moments if weather permits. Let’s see who doesn’t make it out.
Daniel Suarez
No matter how the playoffs go, this year is a success for Suarez and Trackhouse. Suarez got that long-awaited win at Sonoma and has speed at all sorts of tracks. Truth be told, Suarez may be the biggest wild card in the Playoffs. We know they’re going to have the speed but if they can turn that into solid finishes, they could turn some heads. However, they struggled to do that in the regular season, which is why they bow out here.
William Byron
I was starting to call Byron a championship favorite after Martinsville. Little did I know that he wouldn’t get another top-five after that. This season has been trying to say the least, as Byron has wrecked out four times since then and led double-digit laps just three times since his last win. Despite these struggles, he’s still the fifth seed and sits second in laps led. That should get him through one round, key word “should”.
Kyle Busch
The most polarizing driver in NASCAR is having a rough time. He lucked into a win at Bristol Dirt, before getting flat-out beaten for wins back-to-back weeks at Charlotte and WWT Raceway. That was a big deal to me, because that guy doesn’t just get beat like that. There’s a lot going on for Rowdy, as his uncertain future has understandably been a topic he can’t escape. While I still think he should find a way to the 41 car, the name that keeps coming up is Kaulig. Either way, a strong playoff run would obviously help in negotiations. Then again, it’s Kyle Busch we’re talking about. He’s going to find something.
Ryan Blaney
Who had less fun at Daytona than Blaney? It’s not fun to have such little control of your playoff hopes, but somehow he found a way in. It’s a good thing too, as Blaney has a real chance to make some noise. However, I think he’s going to need at least a win to go deep. Ryan Newman type years don’t just happen. Can Blaney finally make that big time moment happen? It’s about time he enters that top-tier of drivers.
The third round sees two beautiful changes: Las Vegas is the opener and Homestead-Miami is finally back to the Fall as the second race. After Martinsville, the field will be cut from eight to four. Who is getting cut?
Christopher Bell
Bell has a legitimate case for having the best season at Joe Gibbs Racing, something that even his biggest fans couldn’t have seen coming. Bell has that Matt Kenseth gene where he can fly under the radar, but get better throughout the day and score a bunch of top-fives and top-10s. He is very close to breaking out, but is still a year or two away. The future is very bright for the 20 car.
Tyler Reddick
“Don’t be surprised to see a pair of wins and a Playoff push,” I said inJanuary. That was from my preseason predictions and I’m sticking to it. It’s been fantastic to see the steps that Reddick has taken this year. Even despite a lame duck situation where Reddick announced his move to 23XI in 2024, they just keep grinding away and scoring great results. He even got his current teammate, Austin Dillon, to the big dance. This isn’t the year but mark my words: Tyler Reddick will be a champion in the next five years. He is that good.
Denny Hamlin
Is he ever going to win a championship? Let’s be honest with ourselves: Hamlin has nothing else in his career to prove or accomplish besides finally winning a title. He’s the best ever to not score one, better than Mark Martin, Carl Edwards and Junior Johnson. I’m tired of this narrative, I’m ready for him to finally get the monkey off his back. Unfortunately, he’s been shockingly inconsistent this year, so I can’t give it to him this year.
Ross Chastain
Moving onto Hamlin’s best friend, what a season it’s been for Chastain. The Melon Man has won twice and taken steps that nobody imagined out of a second-year team. At the same time, Chastain has had his share of controversy as well. Hamlin took him out once already, and drivers like Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott have their chips to cash in. Busch even said that drivers are waiting to pay him back until the time is right. Chastain will have a very tough time getting through to Phoenix and can only blame himself. Still, what a season it’s been.
So for those of you who aren’t keeping track at home, here are my four drivers who will make it to Phoenix.
Chase Elliott
Something will have to go terribly wrong for Elliott not to make the championship four this year. He’s been the most consistent driver in a season full of inconsistency. This is looking like the best season of his career, even better than his 2020 championship.
Kyle Larson
Kyle Larson obviously has taken a step back from his otherworldly 2021 season. That’s okay, as he’s still the fourth seed and looking to peak at the right time. He just scored a win at Watkins Glen and has a great few tracks coming up. He’s done everything but win at Darlington, and scored wins at Kansas, Bristol, Texas, the Roval and Phoenix. The schedule plays right into the California Kid’s wheelhouse.
Joey Logano
Unlike his usual self, Logano has flown under the radar most of this year. After wins at Darlington and WWT Raceway, Logano went from four straight finishes in the 20s to four straight top-10s. What makes Logano a threat is his postseason repertoire. Logano has a case for the best playoff performer after Jimmie Johnson, especially in even years. He’s been known for coming up clutch, most notably his 2018 Martinsville win en route to the title. Logano may have as good a shot as anybody.
Kevin Harvick
Harvick looked dead in the water a month ago. Fast forward to now and he’s the hottest driver in NASCAR. Only Harvick could go winless for almost two years, then immediately go back-to-back. He’s got an uphill battle, with just 106 laps led and being the ninth seed. However, I am done doubting Harvick. If he’s got a chance, it’s hard to stop him.
It’s taken a win every year and I see 2022 being no exception. The final four has a combined 10 wins on the year. Phoenix and other flat tracks have gone Ford’s way so far this year, which I see as a factor. All of these drivers are champions already. One driver in particular was a big underdog in his first. In a year as open as this one, he’s going to go get number two and further cement a Hall of Fame career with another big performance.
My pick for the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series championship is… Joey Logano.
This has all the makings for an all-time great season and I can’t wait for the Playoffs. Who is your pick? Feel free to tweet me @HBLoomis. Let’s talk racing!
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