Photo courtesy of NBC Sports
Let’s do a little NASCAR Bracketology.
There are few things I enjoy as much as trying to predict sports. While I have been on a bad run (I picked Iowa to win March Madness and the Edmonton Oilers to win the Stanley Cup), the part I love is explaining why I think a certain scenario could play out. You can look at a driver and say they have no chance of advancing far; but then that same driver could win two of the next four races and he’s suddenly a championship favorite. Is it artificial? Absolutely, but what else is there to do besides just enjoy it?
For the new NASCAR fans, welcome, you’re in for a beautiful mess. For the returning, we know what’s coming. 16 drivers, four rounds, one champion and a bunch of uncertainty in between. Before dissecting round-by-round, let’s go over the current Playoff standings.
Kyle Larson 2052
Ryan Blaney 2024
Martin Truex Jr. 2024
Kyle Busch 2022
Chase Elliott 2021 <- (omen?)
Alex Bowman 2015
Denny Hamlin 2015
William Byron 2014
Joey Logano 2013
Brad Keselowski 2008
Kurt Busch 2008
Michael McDowell 2005
Christopher Bell 2005
Aric Almirola 2005
Tyler Reddick 2003
Kevin Harvick 2002
We’re going to do something different for this prediction. Instead of doing a ranking or anything, I’m just going to list who will get eliminated every round. Hopefully this will be a little quicker and more direct. Let’s start with the opening round at Darlington, Richmond and Bristol.
Round 1 Eliminations: Michael McDowell, Aric Almirola, Tyler Reddick, Kurt Busch
Listen: Michael McDowell is a great story; but he’s not going anywhere. He just doesn’t have the power, especially in the 750 HP package. Aric Almirola has a win in this package at New Hampshire; but he’s been the most inconsistent driver in the Playoffs. He’s going to need a big run to have a shot to advance. For my last two eliminations, it came down to three drivers: Reddick, Kurt Busch and Christopher Bell. Reddick has been very consistent all year, but he will need to turn his top-10s into top-fives to make up for his points deficit. I ultimately chose Bell over Busch because Bell has been running very well lately. Add to it the experience of Adam Stevens and the no. 20 will make the second round for the first time since 2017 with Matt Kenseth.
The second round will be at Las Vegas, Talladega and the Charlotte Roval.
Round 2 Eliminations: Christopher Bell, Alex Bowman, Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick
Round Two is where we really start to see some big names fall; and 2021 will be no exception. Bell will need to win to get past the rest of the field, which I don’t know if I see. Bowman has been too inconsistent despite having three wins. Keselowski hasn’t been his usual self in his final year in Penske. I see Round Two being his demise for the fourth time. Harvick is possibly the most fascinating driver in the Playoffs. While this year has not been a good one, especially compared to 2020, he still has an 11.5 average finish, fourth best. He could bow out first round or make it to Phoenix, and I wouldn’t be surprised. For now, I will leave him bowing out after the Charlotte Roval.
Now it’s time for the third round, at Texas, Kansas and Martinsville.
Round 3 Eliminations: William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin
This may be the hardest Playoff to predict in some time. Byron’s 2021 has been a mini-breakout; but I still think they are capable of more. Winning is paramount the deeper you get in the Playoffs; and Byron has been more of a 4-8th place driver this year. Blaney has won the last two races; but those were in August. How will the no. 12 team run come October? Will they keep the momentum, or did they peak too early? Speaking of peaking too early, Martin Truex Jr. has fizzled out dramatically since his win on Mother’s Day. The three wins are nice; but a fourth in this round may be what he needs to try and win a second title. Now for Denny Hamlin, who looked like a world-beater for much of this season. Hamlin got edged out for the regular-season championship by Kyle Larson, which is huge. He has no wins; and could really use those extra points. Hamlin may be the best driver ever without a championship. Unfortunately, that doesn’t look like it’s about to change this year.
So with that being said, we’re down to my Championship 4 picks.
5- Kyle Larson
9- Chase Elliott
18- Kyle Busch
22- Joey Logano
I feel good about these picks, and I think any one of them could go out and walk off at Phoenix. Let’s rank them and see who will win the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship.
4. Joey Logano
I haven’t seen anyone else pick Logano to make the Championship, which I like. Logano has probably been the fifth or sixth best driver this year; but that’s not what he’s known for. Logano may be the best Chase/Playoff performer not named Jimmie Johnson. He’s made the Championship four times, including his 2018 Title. Logano knows what he needs to do to advance (typically a win or two); and he’s pretty good at Phoenix too. That said, I think he’s the weakest of the Championship drivers.
3. Kyle Larson
Kyle Larson is the anti-Logano. Incredible in the regular season, known for underachieving in the Playoffs. Whether this is because of Chip Ganassi or himself is irrelevant now. Larson can seemingly cruise to the Championship 4. We know what Hendrick Motorsports has done with the Chase/Playoffs. Can he finish off one of the greatest comebacks in NASCAR history? He’s going to have to prove something before I name him my favorite.
2. Chase Elliott
You have to beat the best to become the best, right? Chase Elliott, like Logano, has been amazing in the Playoffs, with six wins in the last 30 Playoff races. This year reminds me a lot of last year, with the no. 9 team waiting for the right time to strike. I have no doubt that Elliott will win at least one race in the Playoffs (probably the Roval again), but will he win the one that counts? I don’t see it.
1. Kyle Busch
I picked him to win it all back in December; and I’ll stick with it. Kyle Busch has been quietly great since his win at Kansas. When Hendrick was having their unreal summer, it was Busch that was typically among the best of the rest, with a standout moment happening at Pocono, when he won the second half of the doubleheader despite being stuck in fourth gear. Busch is the only multi-time champion left in NASCAR. He’s won two titles in two very different ways. Additionally, only one driver has won two races at Phoenix since they moved the start/finish line. Guess who that is? When the checkered flag falls in the desert, the Candy Man will be celebrating his third championship, further securing his place as an all-time great driver.
Who is your favorite for the championship? Please leave a comment or tweet me @HBLoomis. Let’s talk racing!
Comments