Photo courtesy of NASCAR on NBC Sports
It’s time for the home stretch.
After a two-week break for the Olympics, NASCAR is back with 14 races in 14 weeks to conclude the 2021 season. While the first 22 races gave us plenty of wild moments, seeing 13 drivers punch their ticket into the Playoffs, this final stretch seems sure to give us more craziness en route to crowning a new NASCAR Cup Champion. That being said, there are some big questions that have to be answered, starting at the top.
Hamlin or Larson: who wins the Regular Season title?
I must say: after Nashville, I wouldn’t have been surprised if Kyle Larson was already a race ahead of Denny Hamlin. Ever since his blown tire at Pocono, Larson has cooled off a bit, sitting 13 points behind Hamlin with four races left before the Playoffs. The two men at the top have had complete opposite seasons. Whereas Hamlin has no wins to Larson’s four, Hamlin 8.6 average finish dwarfs the 10.3 that Larson is sporting. One driver needs the top spot much moreso; and that’s Hamlin. With 32 Playoff Points already, Larson seems like all but a lock for Phoenix. Hamlin only has five Playoff Points so far, so those 15 bonus points for Regular Season Champion should be paramount for the no. 11 team.
Who wins first, Hamlin or Harvick?
Oh look, he’s back. It can’t be overstated how weird it is that Kevin Harvick and Hamlin are both still waiting on their first win of the season. Whereas Hamlin has had many strong runs only to come up short, Harvick has just had a dismal year, especially for his standard. Only 105 laps led and no Playoff Points, Harvick’s Playoff run may be very short lived if he doesn’t start making these points up. Not only that, but with 13 drivers winning already, Harvick especially needs a win before any other Playoff drivers win and bump him. While the start of the season was a disaster for Stewart-Haas Racing, things have turned a corner. While Harvick led 66 laps New Hampshire, it was his teammate in Aric Almirola that shocked the world and won the race. Momentum seems to favor Harvick, especially with Michigan and Darlington coming up.
Where will the numbers go next year?
It's the age old question. Ever since the next-gen car got announced, the question has been asked: where will the numbers go? It seemed for a long time like the numbers would be moved back, as the 2020 All-Star Race featured the moved back numbers. This wasn't a popular move, and it only escalated the cries on both sides. Adam Stern just reported that the numbers may now actually move forward on the door. I will say this: as much as I'd prefer them to stay centered, if they are going to move, I can live with forward. From some designs I've seen on Twitter, the difference isn't that noticeable given the shape of the car. Some cars, like Erik Jones' ride in 2017, have had numbers slide forward and look good. Whatever the decision is, everyone would be better off with an announcement sooner rather than later.
Does Hendrick Motorsports keep up their pace?
We all know how good Hendrick has been this year, with Larson, Chase Elliott, William Byron and Alex Bowman combining for 10 wins already. That’s nice and all; but what will they do when the Playoffs hit? Will the break slow their momentum? I don’t believe so, and here’s why: it’s Hendrick Motorsports. Jimmie Johnson is proof that Hendrick Motorsports knows how to find another gear come Playoff time. We saw their clutch gene last year, as Byron won his way into the Playoffs at Daytona, before Elliott, you know, won the Championship. There’s no reason to expect the Hendrick train to slow anytime soon.
Who gets the last Playoff spot, Dillon, Reddick or the field?
As stated already, 13 drivers have locked themselves into the Playoffs. That means that three spots are currently open for non-winners. One would have to assume that Hamlin, the points leader, and Harvick, 10th in the standings, are fairly safe as of now. The bubble spot currently belongs to Tyler Reddick, who has a five-point advantage on teammate Austin Dillon. Both drivers have been quite consistent this season, but will it be enough? Will someone like Chris Buescher, Ricky Stenhouse, Matt DiBenedetto or Ross Chastain come in and steal the last spot. All I will say is this: I think it takes a win to get in.
Who mounts a late season charge?
This year has really been about a handful of drivers. We’ve heard endless talk about the Hendrick and Joe Gibbs teams, not to mention Bubba Wallace and Daniel Suarez in their first seasons with new teams. But who are some guys to mount a charge and make themselves contenders? One team that sticks out to me is Team Penske, and from there, one driver really stands out: Joey Logano. Serious question: who knew that Logano was fifth in points? While they haven’t contended for wins lately, they’ve done enough to keep themselves afloat so far. On top of that, Logano is the best Playoff performer since Jimmie Johnson, winning 10 Playoff races since 2014. The no. 22 team is strong, showing their fight with a big rally at New Hampshire. Don’t count out Sliced Bread just yet.
Who will make it to Phoenix?
With the Playoffs being so long, it’s so easy for a driver to start out strong, only to fizzle out in the Round of 8 and miss the Championship. That’s what makes predicting so difficult, just look at Kevin Harvick last year. With that being said, I’m going to shoot my shot anyway. It seems clear that at least three of the four spots will go to either Hendrick Motorsports or Joe Gibbs Racing, leaving one spot up for grabs. Here’s what I expect the Championship 4 to look like when we get to Phoenix:
5- Kyle Larson
9- Chase Elliott
18- Kyle Busch
22- Joey Logano
Obviously, there is no way of knowing what is coming these next three months; but boy am I excited to see how things play out. What do you think will happen the rest of the way? Feel free to leave a comment or tweet me @HBLoomis. Let’s talk racing!
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