Photo courtesy of Frontstretch
The pieces are slowly starting to fall into place.
With Alex Bowman announcing a two-year extension at Nashville this weekend, another piece was put together ahead of what will be a fascinating silly season in NASCAR. With a new car that is promising to reduce spending, many teams are looking to add a car, or join the series entirely. Teams like 23XI and Trackhouse Racing are looking at adding a second car, while Kaulig Racing and GMS have announced plans at debut Cup campaign.
Today, we’re going to try and predict who takes all of these spots. But first, let’s take a look at some free agent drivers that don’t have much question about their future.
3- Austin Dillon: He drives for his Grandpa’s company. He’s not going anywhere. Dillon has had a very solid season thus far and no change will even be considered.
8- Tyler Reddick: Reddick has also been very good this year, I don’t see him making a switch just yet.
17- Chris Buescher: Buescher has been the model of consistency this year for Roush. I see him being around for a few years. With a potential new owner, he will definitely want to see where the team can go.
20- Christopher Bell: Joe Gibbs Racing didn’t dump Erik Jones just to lose Christopher Bell after one season. Bell broke through and won already, he will win a lot more in the no. 20 for a few years to come.
34- Michael McDowell: Daytona 500 win, career year and he wants to stay put. What a season it’s been for McDowell, FRM will likely be his home for the rest of his career.
38- Anthony Alfredo: Jayski reported that Alfredo’s contract is likely year-to-year. I don’t see him going anywhere. FRM knew that he’s going to take time to develop.
41- Cole Custer: Custer has had a dreadful year like everyone else at SHR. However, his father is President of the company, so that alone helps solidify that last year’s Rookie of the Year will be back.
42- Ross Chastain: Chastain has proven his worth in recent weeks with strong runs at COTA and the All-Star race. Chip Ganassi will keep him around a little longer. He likes winners.
47- Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Stenhouse was doing a solid job early in the season of keeping it off the wall. He’s run into some trouble recently, but we know how good he can be on superspeedways. JTG-Daugherty will be his home for years to come.
99- Daniel Suarez: Suarez has rejuvenated his career at Trackhouse. They have a great relationship, and that will continue into next year. The only question is if he’ll have a teammate.
These returns leave us with about 10 spots to fill up going into next year. We are going to try and tackle these in the best order possible. Let’s start with the biggest fish on the market.
Brad Keselowski
Brad Keselowski has been at Penske since 2010, winning them their first NASCAR championship in 2012. He was rumored to be potentially on the move last year, but COVID really hurt the market, and he returned to the deuce. The rumor going around is that he is headed to Roush to become part-owner. While that seems like a terrible idea performance-wise, think about it. He’s going to be 38 at next year’s Daytona 500, has won everything except that race and was an owner before. I think this happens, Keselowski is going to go to Roush.
Prediction: Keselowski goes to the 6.
Ryan Newman
This obviously means that Newman is going to have to find a new ride, right? I don’t see it happening. Newman is going on 44, hasn’t won in four years and hasn’t been in a competitive ride for a while. I think 2021 may be the end of the run for the Rocketman.
Prediction: Newman retires.
So who takes over the 2 car?
Keselowski moving will really leave a huge ripple effect on the look of the Cup Series. Only three drivers have driven the no. 2 car since Roger Penske moved to NASCAR. Who will come in and be the fourth? I think the answer is already in the farm system. This is Austin Cindric’s ride now. He’s looking good for his second straight Xfinity championship and has run well in his few Cup starts. Cindric has turned into a potential face of the franchise for years to come.
Prediction: Austin Cindric to the 2.
Wood Brothers
During the offseason, it was reported that Cindric would get the 21 in 2022. Well, this plan is obviously going to change. Penske isn’t going to have Cindric drive the 21 over his own car, plain and simple. I think that Matt DiBenedetto is a perfect fit to stay at the Wood Brothers for at least another year.
Prediction: Matt DiBenedetto stays in the 21.
Kurt Busch
Kurt Busch has been in just about every rumor this silly season. Retirement, Trackhouse, 23XI you name it. The one rumor we haven’t really heard is that he’ll be back at Ganassi. I think the move that makes the most sense is 23XI. In addition to bringing in Monster Energy, he will be a great mentor to Bubba Wallace and can get support from Joe Gibbs Racing. I think being almost teammates with his brother is very enticing. The rumor is that Rick Ware is leasing a charter, and 23XI has the funding to win that bidding war. What number? I’ll say 45, the number Michael Jordan wore when he returned from his first retirement.
Prediction: Busch goes to 23XI, drives the 45.
So who takes over the 1?
Chip Ganassi is going to need sponsorship in the worst way possible. Losing Credit One Bank and Monster in back-to-back offseasons is rough, especially after losing Target and DCSolar in recent years. I think they will promote from Xfinity someone who has sponsorship. The name that sticks out to me is Noah Gragson. Whereas Justin Allgaier seems like he’ll be in Xfinity for the rest of his career, Gragson is itching to move up, regardless of team. If Bass Pro and Black Rifle Coffee stay on board, Gragson is going Cup racing next year.
Prediction: Noah Gragson takes the 1.
Kaulig Racing
This ride seems to be down to two candidates: Justin Haley and A.J. Allmendinger. Both drivers are running well in Xfinity and have a Cup win on their resumes. Looking at the direction the schedule and next-gen cars are headed toward, I think the more likely choice is Allmendinger, at least for the short term. Two Cup starts on road this year, and he has run sixth and fifth. Allmendinger has reinvigorated himself at Kaulig. Part of him wants one more crack at Cup. Here it is.
Prediction: Allmendinger takes the 16.
Justin Haley
Haley has already run 17 Cup starts in his career, getting that weird win at Daytona. He won ¾ superspeedways in Xfinity last year, finishing third in points. He is ready to go Cup racing. I think there is one very, very interesting possibility for him. GMS announced that they are going Cup racing. While this shocked me, the fact that they struggle with sponsorship makes in even more shocking. Haley has had backing from LeafFilter, FOE and Diamond Creek Water this season. The team won’t have a charter, but Haley could bring some backing to get the team on its feet. That’s not even to mention he ran for them in the truck series. I say it happens, and they bring the no. 26 from the Truck series to Cup.
Prediction: Haley goes to GMS, drives the 26.
Second Trackhouse Car
This opening is a fascinating one. Trackhouse has exceeded their own expectations this year, and has a few nice sponsorships. The thing to remember is that Trackhouse is a RCR affiliate. Having said that, I think they promote from within. The most likely candidate seems to be Kaz Grala. Grala, like Allmendinger, will benefit a team greatly based on how the schedule plays out. Look at Grala’s debut at the Daytona Road Course last year in Austin Dillon’s car. Grala is a smart driver, and will get the most out of a car. I’ll say that Grala gets his shot, driving the no. 61 that he sported in the second half of his 2018 Xfinity campaign.
Prediction: Kaz Grala goes to Trackhouse, drives the 61.
Whatever happens this offseason, I am very excited to see how this silly season plays out. What do you think will happen? Feel free to leave a comment, or tweet me @HBLoomis. Let’s talk racing!
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