Photo: Armando L. Sanchez | Chicago Tribune
There was a stubborn part of my brain that thought I wouldn’t have to write this until November.
As quickly as the Cardinals’ season appeared to be something out of a movie, the curtain dropped and the ride was over. Now it’s time to take a look at who the team has, where their strengths and weaknesses lay.
Now to be clear, nobody should be judging the future of the team based on the last two games. It’s too small of a sample size. Ollie Marmol did a good job this year, regardless of his postseason. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are not the hitters they were against Philadelphia, that’s just baseball.
That’s not to say that the team is flawless, because it’s far from it.
There are plenty of mysteries going into the 2023, some of which have already been answered. What we already know is that Adam Wainwright is coming back, Jeff Albert and Mike Maddux are gone and Skip Schumaker is the new manager of the Miami Marlins. Nolan Arenado has officially opted in, keeping him wearing the birds on the bat until 2027.
Looking at what the Cardinals have, I would argue that the three biggest needs are at shortstop, catcher and an ace starting pitcher. Luckily, this year’s class gives options to fill all of those positions.
1. SS Xander Bogaerts
Here’s a list of Cardinals shortstops since Ozzie Smith retired: Royce Clayton, Edgar Renteria, David Eckstein, Cezar Izturis, Brendan Ryan, Ryan Theriot, Rafael Furcal, Pete Kozma, Johnny Peralta, Aledmys Diaz and Paul DeJong. That’s a lot of turnover in 26 years. DeJong is still on the team, but he’s regressed every year since his stellar rookie season, spending a lot of 2022 in AAA. It’s time to be bold.
Trea Turner has 30/30 potential and plays in Los Angeles, so he may get over $350 million before a potential bidding war. Carlos Correa played well enough to opt-out of a $35 million contract each of the next two years, so expect him to get a bidding war. Flying under the radar is Red Sox star Xander Bogaerts. Bogaerts has seemed to fly under the radar, which can happen when playing with the likes of David Ortiz, Mookie Betts and wonderkid Rafael Devers. Away from the main spotlight, Bogaerts has been getting it done with the bat and glove. The four-time Silver Slugger has been an above-average hitter in a position where that hasn’t always been a requirement to succeed. He was an over 1.0 WAR fielder with an OPS+ that would’ve been fourth best on the Cardinals this year.
What I love about adding a big-game shortstop like Bogaerts is the way he would immediately benefit the Cardinals lineup. The team found success in spite of DeJong’s struggles, as guys like Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan thrived in their new roles. Imagine having Bogaerts at shortstop and moving either Edman, Donovan or Nolan Gorman at second base. When one is at second, maybe another takes DH or occasionally right field. That kind of leverage, while adding a weapon to the heart of the lineup, seems like a potential home run signing.
2. C Willson Contreras
Contrary to shortstop, there’s been next-to-no turnover at the catcher position. That’s the kind of thing that happens when you have the best defensive catcher in the history of baseball. Now that Yadier Molina is gone, the Cardinals have two options- either go with Andrew Knizner and/or Ivan Herrera who are already here, or go big game hunting and make a splash in free agency.
Fortunately for the Cardinals, there’s a really good option hitting the open market.
Willson Contreras has been continuing to impress on some bad Cubs teams. After trading off faces like Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, Contreras played out the end of his team-friendly contract to both good offense and defense. Contreras is one of the best hitters behind the plate, with a career-high 128 OPS+ in 2022. He’s no Yadi behind the plate but he’s more than serviceable. He has a 30% success rate at throwing out base stealers, as well as having 28 pick-offs in seven seasons.
What makes me love this idea even more is the fact that Jose Quintana was reported to be recruiting him. If a guy who has been on the team for a half-season thinks that highly, that’s a great sign.
He isn’t Yadi and he’s not going to be Yadi. He’s also a better option than anything the Cardinals currently have available to them. If the Cardinals are going to elevate into World Series contention with the pieces they have in place, getting someone like Contreras would be a huge shot in the arm.
3. P Carlos Rodon
The Cardinals don’t have a bonafide ace, there I said it. Jack Flaherty is not that guy anymore. Even when healthy he hasn’t come close to replicating his 2019 second half. I love Miles Mikolas, Jose Quintana and Jordan Montgomery, but they’re not guys you give the ball in Game 7 of the World Series. Adam Wainwright is in his swansong, someone needs to take that spot from him.
There’s a couple high-end starters available this year with their own concerns. Jacob deGrom is incredible but he’s already 35. He’s going to get a Max Scherzer type of deal that the Cardinals don’t need to spend. Clayton Kershaw is a Dodger lifer in my eyes, so he’s out too. The best option to me is Carlos Rodon, who seems like a lock to be out of San Francisco. He bet on himself last year and enjoyed a fantastic season. While it wasn’t quite on the level of his 2021 breakout, his FIP dropped by 0.40 and he had a sub-3.00 ERA for a second straight year.
Rodon relies heavily on his fastball and slider, and he knows how to avoid barrels, rocking a 5.7 barrel percentage. He’s got the pedigree and potential to be a top-of-the-line starter for a great team. With the pieces in place and an aggressive mindset this offseason, now is time to go get a another ring.
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