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All I want for Christmas is for this team to make any sense.
We can talk all we want about how this edition of our beloved St. Louis Blues is so similar to the 2018-19 Cup winners because of their slow start. Here’s the difference between the two- this team should be way better.
The talent on this team speaks for itself. Swap the likes of Tyler Bozak, Pat Maroon and Oskar Sundqvist for guys like Pavel Buchnevich, Brandon Saad and Noel Acciari and it’s no contest who should be better. This team is blessed with superstar talent in Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou, who weren’t nearly the factors they are today.
The offense, when healthy, isn’t a problem anymore. Sitting 21st in goals scored isn’t ideal, but the eye test shows a tale of two teams. The big guys are starting to perform and Acciari has been the best one-year signing in quite some time. Everyone knew the question for this team would be the defense.
Guess what’s gone wrong? Defense.
Things have gone worse than feared for this defense. Nobody will mistake me for being a huge Marco Scandella fan, but it’s shocking to see this team plummet from 11th in goals allowed last year to 27th this year with hip sidelined with hip surgery.
Things are so bad that only three defensemen have a positive plus/minus after the OT loss to Toronto. Those are Calle Rosen (+9), Niko Mikkola (+3) and Robert Bortuzzo (+1). The big guys are simply not getting it done.
Justin Faulk is the Blues best defender without a doubt, but I fear that’s not good enough for a contender. His 20 points and -6 aren’t ideal but he gives the Blues the closest thing to stability while playing 23 minutes a night.
I love both Nick Leddy and Torey Krug but both are having rough seasons in opposite ways. Leddy is a -6 without a goal, Krug has scored five but is an atrocious -20. Krug can’t stay healthy, as he’s now out for six weeks minimum. That’s over $10 million of your cap that isn’t delivering what you need.
However, the biggest issue on the back end is Colton Parayko. Something went so wrong with Parayko after Alex Pietrangelo left town. His calling card coming up was being a big physical defenseman with a slapshot rivaling Shea Weber. In the shortened 2021 season, he was reported as playing through a back injury. Two seasons later, he looks to still be going through it.
It’s been difficult to watch. He looks like a shell of the guy that was ½ of the Blues best pairing when they won the Cup. He can’t move like he used to, doesn’t use his body and his slapshot, when used, looks slow and painful. His stats speak for themself. He’s not the player he was when he had Jay Bouwmeester.
Here’s the thing- I wouldn’t go in on Parayko like this if he didn’t get extended the way he did. But he just signed an 8-year contract worth over $6 million per season. To put into perspective how long eight years is, consider that T.J. Oshie was still a Blue eight years ago. The deal looks like a disaster now and doesn’t look to get any better.
It’s because of all the issues with the defense that I don’t know how to view Jordan Binnington. The decision to trade Ville Husso and keep Binnington after his outstanding playoffs will be judged for some time. While his .895 save percentage looks pretty awful, the eye test matters.
His save percentage was irredeemably sunken during the eight-game losing skid, where it’s hard to blame Binnington. When your offense doesn’t shoot on odd-man-rushes and your defense allows the slot to be wide open all day, what’s he supposed to do?
Look, I’ve always been a Binnington fan. The memories he created in 2019 are permanently etched in my head. But even I know when he steps over the line. There’s been several instances, especially Pittsburgh, where he makes an embarrassing moment look worse. Those days have to be over, nobody on this team has the right to clown everybody with the way they’ve been playing. I’m glad to see it hasn’t been an issue since Craig Berube called him out.
Speaking of Berube, I’m very glad he wasn’t fired. When a team looks as bad as they did early, it’s easy to call for the coach’s job and say the message has gone stale. The team still shows flashes of brilliance when they’re on and Berube is a big part of that. He’s the epitome of a player’s coach. He’s not perfect, but he’s still the guy for this team.
The guy that everyone’s eyes are on is Doug Armstrong, longtime GM of the Blues. His resume speaks for itself, but lately Blues fans are getting restless. The issues aren’t so much losing Pietrangelo and David Perron as much as it is the long extensions to Faulk, Brayden Schenn, Krug, Scandella, Binnington, Leddy and Parayko.
Five of those seven got at least $6 million for at least six years. He didn’t ask for COVID and nobody could’ve predicted the salary cap flatlining for a few years, but that’s a tough obstacle to work around. He’s still managed to get some great talent with the aforementioned Buchnevich, Saad and Acciari moves, but there’s more work to be done.
He’s got his biggest test yet this offseason, as both Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O’Reilly are set to become UFAs this July. Armstrong has come off pretty stubborn with the way he’s made moves lately, which gives me pause that both may return.
With Tarasenko, the water is muddy. Tarasenko publicly wants out, and has since before last season started. Everyone knows that, including Armstrong. But he didn’t budge and held on to the sniper. Does Armstrong hold onto him if he’s just gonna walk in free agency? I’d like to think not, because Tarasenko’s trade value is as high as it will get from here on out. But there’s fear that the two parties are too far apart. He’s still bitter he doesn’t wear the C.
The O’Reilly situation is much clearer. Trading for him was the best move in franchise history. The Blues got an immediate Selke, Conn Smythe, Stanley Cup and future captain. However, the years since have painted a different picture. O’Reilly is still a great two-way forward and one of the best faceoff men in the NHL. However, he’s not the offensive spark he once was, is on the wrong side of 30 and had a pretty nasty contract dispute back in his Colorado days. The Blues have a lot of money already invested in older players.
But Armstrong needs to get a deal done for this one reason- Tage Thompson. Thompson was the centerpiece in the Blues package for ROR, and he’s become an unbelievable goal scorer for the Sabres. Armstrong went to the Sabre well with the infamous Ryan Miller trade, the worst move he’s ever made. He absolutely can’t let Buffalo get the better of him again. The captain is getting signed, he has to be.
Don’t let projections fool you, this team can still make the playoffs. The season isn’t even halfway over and the team is far better than they were in November. They’re only five points out of a playoff spot and have already played some of the toughest parts of the schedule. Something tells me Armstrong has something up his sleeve as well. This team doesn’t make sense, but they don’t have to yet.
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